LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD
Austin, Texas
FISCAL NOTE, 76th Regular Session
March 17, 1999
TO: Honorable Ken Armbrister, Chair, Senate Committee on
Criminal Justice
FROM: John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board
IN RE: SB447 by Ogden (Relating to requiring as a condition of
release of a child by the Texas Youth Commission that the
child obtain a mandatory educational skill level.), As
Introduced
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* Estimated Two-year Net Impact to General Revenue Related Funds for *
* SB447, As Introduced: negative impact of $(51,369,401) through *
* the biennium ending August 31, 2001. *
* *
* The bill would make no appropriation but could provide the legal *
* basis for an appropriation of funds to implement the provisions of *
* the bill. *
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The bill would require the Texas Youth Commission to determine, before
releasing a child on parole, that a child has achieved either (1) an
educational skill level that is at least equal to the average child of
the same age or (2) a high school diploma or graduate equivalency diploma
unless the commission finds that the child lacks the intellectual
capacity or learning ability to achieve these educational levels.
The governor could waive the requirements of the bill if the governor
found that resources of the Commission are insufficient.
General Revenue-Related Funds, Five-Year Impact:
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* Fiscal Year Probable Net Positive/(Negative) *
* Impact to General Revenue Related *
* Funds *
* 2000 $(17,851,223) *
* 2001 (33,518,178) *
* 2002 (41,436,032) *
* 2003 (45,810,301) *
* 2004 (47,880,781) *
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All Funds, Five-Year Impact:
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*Fiscal Probable Probable Change in Number of *
* Year Savings/(Cost) from Savings/(Cost) from State Employees from *
* General Revenue Fund General Revenue Fund FY 1999 *
* 0001 0001 *
* 2000 $1,747,620 $(19,598,843) 0.0 *
* 2001 3,286,165 (36,804,343) 0.0 *
* 2002 2,136,247 (43,572,279) 0.0 *
* 2003 881,018 (46,691,319) 0.0 *
* 2004 421,484 (48,302,265) 0.0 *
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Technology Impact
n/a
Fiscal Analysis
The bill would result in an increased length of stay for approximately
42% of the youth committed to the agency. It is estimated that the
average time required to meet the requirements of the bill would be two
years. Youth whose expected length of stay under current law would be
less than two years are assumed to remain for a full two years.
Methodology
In order to estimate the future impact of the proposal, the changes
proposed for release policy are applied in a simulation model to an
on-hand population and to intakes that reflect the distribution of
offense and time served guidelines. A simulation model is also used to
estimate the decrease in the number of youth in aftercare, due to the
decrease in the number of releases from the Texas Youth Commission.
Included in the estimated cost is projected savings in aftercare costs.
Costs of housing additional population are estimated on the basis of $101
per youth per day, reflecting approximate costs of contracting with
other entities. The increase in demand for contract capacity is expected
to be 532 in FY 2000, increasing to 1,310 by FY 2004. No costs are
included for facility construction. Aftercare costs and savings are
estimated to be $9 per youth per day. The reduction in demand for
aftercare is expected to be 532 in FY 2000, decreasing to 1,000 in FY
2001 and then decreasing slowly to 128 in FY 2004.
If the governor were to waive the requirements of the bill, there would
be no cost.
Local Government Impact
No fiscal implication to units of local government is anticipated.
Source Agencies:
LBB Staff: JK, MD, DC