| TO: | Honorable Ron Wilson, Chair, House Committee on Ways & Means |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB53 by Wolens (Relating to an increase in the cigarette tax and the distribution of that increase to counties and municipalities for police, sheriff, and fire services.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HB 53 by Wolens
Date: February 6, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) in Tax Revenue |
General Revenue Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to Tax Collections |
|
2004 |
$384,065,000 |
($6,387,000) |
$377,678,000 |
|
2005 |
520,850,000 |
(9,841,000) |
511,009,000 |
|
2006 |
458,136,000 |
(10,005,000) |
448,131,000 |
|
2007 |
491,656,000 |
(14,729,000) |
476,927,000 |
|
2008 |
430,280,000 |
(18,235,000) |
412,045,000 |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
($229,300,000) |
($233,672,000) |
(5,900) |
|
2005 |
(285,500,000) |
(267,638,000) |
(7,800) |
|
2006 |
(252,600,000) |
(190,658,000) |
(6,800) |
|
2007 |
(294,100,000) |
(193,879,000) |
(7,200) |
|
2008 |
(270,000,000) |
(129,854,000) |
(6,300) |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, by 2013, this bill could be expected to have decreased employment by 66,100 workers, investment by $1,487.6 million, and Texas Personal Income by $2,924.0 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation is based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|