| TO: | Honorable Ron Wilson, Chair, House Committee on Ways & Means |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB361 by Dutton (Relating to exemptions from the sales tax.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HB 361 by Dutton
Date: March 31, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
The following analysis assumes an effective date of July 1, 2003:
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001 |
Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001 |
|
2003 |
($36,042,000) |
$815,000 |
($35,227,000) |
|
2004 |
(104,968,000) |
3,151,000 |
(101,817,000) |
|
2005 |
(110,290,000) |
3,804,000 |
(106,486,000) |
|
2006 |
(115,905,000) |
4,672,000 |
(111,233,000) |
|
2007 |
(121,791,000) |
6,562,000 |
(115,229,000) |
|
2008 |
(128,011,000) |
8,138,000 |
(119,873,000) |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
The following analysis assumes an effective date of July 1, 2003:
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2003 |
$29,240,000 |
$28,062,000 |
800 |
|
2004 |
104,800,000 |
99,005,000 |
2,900 |
|
2005 |
103,600,000 |
84,763,000 |
3,000 |
|
2006 |
113,200,000 |
78,874,000 |
3,000 |
|
2007 |
124,100,000 |
74,338,000 |
3,100 |
|
2008 |
134,400,000 |
70,067,000 |
3,200 |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to increase employment by 3,700 workers, investment by $57.5 million, and Texas Personal Income by $191.9 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|