| TO: | Honorable Tom Craddick, Speaker of the House, House of Representatives |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB1365 by Bonnen (Relating to the Texas emissions reduction plan.), As Passed 2nd House |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: CSHB 1365 by Bonnen, 2nd house
Date: May 6, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001 |
Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001 |
|
2004 |
$0 |
($1,619,000) |
($1,619,000) |
|
2005 |
0 |
(2,932,000) |
(2,932,000) |
|
2006 |
0 |
(3,813,000) |
(3,813,000) |
|
2007 |
0 |
(5,620,000) |
(5,620,000) |
|
2008 |
0 |
(7,646,000) |
(7,646,000) |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
($58,290,000) |
($70,207,000) |
(1,400) |
|
2005 |
(84,050,000) |
(93,249,000) |
(2,000) |
|
2006 |
(101,600,000) |
(99,100,000) |
(2,300) |
|
2007 |
(120,300,000) |
(105,109,000) |
(2,400) |
|
2008 |
(137,200,000) |
(109,166,000) |
(2,600) |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to decrease employment by 2,300 workers, investment by $60.0 million, and Texas Personal Income by $150.4 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|