LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD
Austin, Texas
 
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION REGARDING ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TAX CHANGES
 
78TH LEGISLATIVE REGULAR SESSION
 
March 24, 2003

TO:
Honorable Dennis Bonnen, Chair, House Committee on Environmental Regulation
 
FROM:
John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board
 
IN RE:
HB1365 by Bonnen (Relating to the Texas emissions reduction plan. ), Committee Report 1st House, Substituted

THE FOLLOWING NEW INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY COMPTROLLER OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS



The following new information was supplied by agency 304 COMPTROLLER OF PUB ACCTS:

Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis

Comptroller of Public Accounts

 

 

 

For: CSHB 1365 by Bonnen

Date: March 21, 2003

 

 

I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008

 

 

Fiscal

Year

Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001

 

Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect

Net Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001

2004

$1,877,000

($1,892,000)

($15,000)

2005

2,091,000

(3,560,000)

(1,469,000)

2006

2,154,000

(4,666,000)

(2,512,000)

2007

2,229,000

(7,062,000)

(4,833,000)

2008

2,319,000

(9,626,000)

(7,307,000)

 

II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008

 

Fiscal

Year

Increase/

(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income

Increase/

(Decrease) in Texas Investment

Increase/

(Decrease) in Texas Employment

2004

($68,164,000)

($87,061,000)

(1,600)

2005

(101,155,000)

(113,505,000)

(2,300)

2006

(127,801,000)

(126,796,000)

(2,700)

2007

(154,474,000)

(137,726,000)

(3,100)

2008

(179,007,000)

(146,493,000)

(3,300)

 

Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.

III. Economic Implications after 2008

After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to decrease employment by 3,800 workers, investment by $139.4 million, and Texas Personal Income by $265.4 million.

IV. Methodology

A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.



Source Agencies:
304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
LBB Staff:
JK, SJS