| TO: | Honorable Ron Wilson, Chair, House Committee on Ways & Means |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB1603 by Griggs (Relating to increases in the tax on cigarettes and other tobacco products and to the allocation of those increases to the foundation school fund.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HB 1603 by Griggs
Date: April 29, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) in Tax Revenue |
General Revenue Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to Tax Collections |
|
2004 |
$806,840,000 |
($13,316,000) |
$793,524,000 |
|
2005 |
964,388,000 |
(18,373,000) |
946,015,000 |
|
2006 |
863,215,000 |
(18,827,000) |
844,388,000 |
|
2007 |
919,789,000 |
(28,334,000) |
891,455,000 |
|
2008 |
820,885,000 |
(34,762,000) |
786,123,000 |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
($478,000,000) |
($487,675,000) |
(12,300) |
|
2005 |
(518,200,000) |
(478,123,000) |
(14,300) |
|
2006 |
(476,600,000) |
(354,687,000) |
(12,800) |
|
2007 |
(549,700,000) |
(356,201,000) |
(13,500) |
|
2008 |
(515,000,000) |
(248,465,000) |
(12,100) |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to decrease employment by 12,500 workers, investment by $161.1 million, and Texas Personal Income by $676.1 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation is based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|