LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD
Austin, Texas
 
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION REGARDING ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TAX CHANGES
 
78TH LEGISLATIVE REGULAR SESSION
 
April 23, 2003

TO:
Honorable Fred Hill, Chair, House Committee on Local Government Ways and Means
 
FROM:
John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board
 
IN RE:
HB2378 by Hill (Relating to the rendition of property for ad valorem tax purposes; providing civil penalties.), As Introduced

THE FOLLOWING NEW INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY COMPTROLLER OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS



The following new information was supplied by agency 304 COMPTROLLER OF PUB ACCTS:

Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis

Comptroller of Public Accounts

 

For: HB 2378 by Hill

Date: April 22, 2003

 

 

I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008

 

 

 

 

Fiscal

Year

Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001

 

Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect

Net Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001

2004

$0

$0

$0

2005

22,996,000

(9,223,000)

13,773,000

2006

135,648,000

(19,954,000)

115,694,000

2007

223,200,000

(20,735,000)

202,465,000

2008

245,695,000

(33,106,000)

212,589,000

 

 

II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008

 

 

Fiscal

Year

Increase/

(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income

Increase/

(Decrease) in Texas Investment

Increase/

(Decrease) in Texas Employment

2004

($23,320,000)

($55,343,000)

(500)

2005

(204,500,000)

(482,991,000)

(4,600)

2006

(381,400,000)

(849,453,000)

(8,100)

2007

(439,000,000)

(869,526,000)

(8,600)

2008

(498,700,000)

(894,435,000)

(9,100)

 

Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.

III. Economic Implications after 2008

After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to decrease employment by 10,100 workers, investment by $888.5 million, and Texas Personal Income by $708.3 million.

 

 

IV. Methodology

                  A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic  impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.



Source Agencies:
304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
LBB Staff:
JK, SJS