| TO: | Honorable Ron Wilson, Chair, House Committee on Ways & Means |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB3192 by Uresti (Relating to an increase in the cigarette tax and to the use of that increase for certain health and human services programs.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HB 3192 by Uresti
Date: April 14, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) in Tax Revenue |
General Revenue Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to Tax Collections |
|
2004 |
$703,133,000 |
($11,622,000) |
$691,511,000 |
|
2005 |
853,913,000 |
(16,266,000) |
837,647,000 |
|
2006 |
750,593,000 |
(16,457,000) |
734,136,000 |
|
2007 |
805,026,000 |
(24,806,000) |
780,220,000 |
|
2008 |
704,054,000 |
(30,304,000) |
673,750,000 |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
($417,200,000) |
($425,597,000) |
(10,700) |
|
2005 |
(460,400,000) |
(425,571,000) |
(12,700) |
|
2006 |
(414,400,000) |
(306,883,000) |
(11,200) |
|
2007 |
(482,400,000) |
(312,526,000) |
(11,800) |
|
2008 |
(442,900,000) |
(208,487,000) |
(10,400) |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to decrease employment by 10,600 workers, investment by $131.7 million, and Texas Personal Income by $576.5 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation is based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|