| TO: | Honorable Fred Hill, Chair, House Committee on Local Government Ways and Means |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB3223 by Bohac (Relating to limiting the maximum average annual increase in the appraised value of real property for ad valorem tax purposes to five percent.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HB 3223 by Bohac
Date: March 31, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) to General Revenue-Related Funds |
Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to General Revenue-Related Funds |
|
2004 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
2005 |
0 |
6,480,000 |
6,480,000 |
|
2006 |
(276,145,000) |
13,042,000 |
(263,103,000) |
|
2007 |
(386,603,000) |
17,746,000 |
(368,857,000) |
|
2008 |
(405,934,000) |
26,244,000 |
(379,690,000) |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
$0 |
$0 |
0 |
|
2005 |
223,200,000 |
280,056,000 |
5,600 |
|
2006 |
354,200,000 |
388,222,000 |
8,600 |
|
2007 |
437,400,000 |
416,156,000 |
10,000 |
|
2008 |
537,400,000 |
454,393,000 |
11,300 |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to increase employment by 15,600 workers, investment by $520.3 million, and Texas Personal Income by $978.4 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|