| TO: | Honorable Fred Hill, Chair, House Committee on Local Government Ways and Means |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HJR57 by Elkins (Proposing a constitutional amendment to require an annual adjustment of the amount of the residence homestead exemption from ad valorem taxation for public school purposes for persons 70 years of age or older to correspond to the average market value of a single-family residence in this state.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HJR 57 by Elkins
Date: April 23, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) to General Revenue Related Funds |
Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to General Revenue Related Funds |
|
2004 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
2005 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2006 |
0 |
8,681,000 |
8,681,000 |
|
2007 |
(559,909,000) |
11,991,000 |
(547,918,000) |
|
2008 |
(587,905,000) |
14,452,000 |
(573,453,000) |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/ (Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
$0 |
$0 |
0 |
|
2005 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2006 |
310,500,000 |
375,043,000 |
7,700 |
|
2007 |
250,200,000 |
276,309,000 |
8,100 |
|
2008 |
286,900,000 |
257,833,000 |
8,800 |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to increase employment by 12,500 workers, investment by $245.6 million, and Texas Personal Income by $565.3 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|