| TO: | Honorable Rodney Ellis, Chair, Senate Committee on Government Organization |
| FROM: | John Keel, Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | SB659 by Brimer (Relating to the creation of the economic development coordinator; the abolition of the Texas Department of Economic Development and the transfer of its functions to the economic development coordinator; and the establishment of economic and business development programs to be administered by the economic development coordinator.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: SB 659 by Brimer
Date: March 19, 2003
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
The estimated fiscal implications to general revenue reflect estimated dynamic tax feedback effects created by the increase/decrease in industry and/or individuals' tax burdens. The dynamic tax feedback effects are shown only with respect to the gain/loss incurred by the General Revenue Fund 0001 from Article 3 of the bill.
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001 |
Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to the General Revenue Fund 0001 |
|
2004 |
($87,100,000) |
$1,714,000 |
($85,926,000) |
|
2005 |
(120,800,000) |
2,210,000 |
(118,590,000) |
|
2006 |
(154,400,000) |
3,451,000 |
(150,949,000) |
|
2007 |
(174,700,000) |
5,344,000 |
(169,356,000) |
|
2008 |
(199,900,000) |
7,791,000 |
(192,109,000) |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2004-2008
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2004 |
$42,420,000 |
$42,534,000 |
1,000 |
|
2005 |
77,270,000 |
70,456,000 |
1,700 |
|
2006 |
119,900,000 |
101,846,000 |
2,400 |
|
2007 |
161,300,000 |
127,533,000 |
3,000 |
|
2008 |
208,100,000 |
155,933,000 |
3,700 |
Note: The values in Section II relate to changes in macroeconomic variables relative to the Comptroller's baseline economic forecast for each individual year.
III. Economic Implications after 2008
After ten years, in 2013, this bill could be expected to increase employment by 5,500 workers, investment by $209.6 million, and Texas Personal Income by $404.9 million.
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was employed in calculating the economic impacts. The model distributes the value that otherwise would have been paid/saved in taxes by businesses and/or consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationships between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller Of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JK, SJS
|