TO: | Honorable Jim Keffer, Chair, House Committee on Ways & Means |
FROM: | John S. O'Brien, Deputy Director, Legislative Budget Board |
IN RE: | HB3 by Keffer, Jim (Relating to property tax relief and protection of taxpayers, taxes and fees, and other matters relating to the financing of public schools; providing civil and criminal penalties; making an appropriation. ), Committee Report 1st House, Substituted |
Comptroller of Public Accounts
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
For: CSHB 3 by Keffer, J.
Date: July 1, 2005
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2006-2010
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) in Tax Revenue |
General Revenue Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to Tax Collections |
2006 |
$3,749,657,000 |
$3,625,000 |
$3,752,922,000 |
2007 |
4,487,061,000 |
45,715,000 |
4,532,776,000 |
2008 |
4,584,328,000 |
86,605,000 |
4,670,933,000 |
2009 |
4,806,360,000 |
119,179,000 |
4,925,539,000 |
2010 |
4,910,807,000 |
158,817,000 |
5,069,624,000 |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2006-2010
Fiscal Year |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Employment |
2006 |
$130,800,000 |
$517,654,000 |
3,000 |
2007 |
1,274,000,000 |
1,562,286,000 |
32,000 |
2008 |
2,007,000,000 |
2,316,994,000 |
45,000 |
2009 |
2,629,000,000 |
2,852,682,000 |
55,000 |
2010 |
3,133,000,000 |
3,223,294,000 |
61,000 |
III. Economic Implications after Ten Years in 2015
Personal Income |
$4,299,000,000 |
Investment |
$3,636,000,000 |
Employment |
65,000 |
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was used in calculating the dynamic effects. The model distributes the savings/losses that would otherwise have been experienced by businesses and consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationship between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
This analysis was assembled at the request of the Legislative Budget Board and should not be considered as a proposal recommended by Comptroller Strayhorn.
Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
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LBB Staff: | JOB, SD, SJS
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