| TO: | Honorable Jim Keffer, Chair, House Committee on Ways & Means |
| FROM: | John S. O'Brien, Deputy Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB3 by Keffer, Jim (Relating to property tax relief and protection of taxpayers, taxes and fees, and other matters relating to the financing of public schools; providing civil and criminal penalties.), As Introduced |
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
Comptroller of Public Accounts
For: HB 3 by Keffer, J
Date: June 22, 2005
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2006-2010
This assumes an effective date of September 1, 2005
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) in General Revenue-Related Funds |
General Revenue Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to General Revenue-Related Funds |
|
2006 |
$3,833,703,000 |
$20,739,000 |
$3,854,442,000 |
|
2007 |
4,682,077,000 |
56,066,000 |
4,738,143,000 |
|
2008 |
4,843,872,000 |
80,391,000 |
4,924,263,000 |
|
2009 |
5,088,937,000 |
115,572,000 |
5,204,509,000 |
|
2010 |
5,237,531,000 |
157,895,000 |
5,395,426,000 |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2006-2010
This assumes an effective date of September 1, 2005
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2006 |
$715,100,000 |
$1,482,710,000 |
19,000 |
|
2007 |
1,525,000,000 |
2,715,502,000 |
37,000 |
|
2008 |
2,101,000,000 |
3,579,408,000 |
46,000 |
|
2009 |
2,568,000,000 |
4,166,279,000 |
52,000 |
|
2010 |
2,876,000,000 |
4,553,263,000 |
55,000 |
III. Economic Implications after Ten Years in 2015
|
Personal Income |
$3,515,000,000 |
|
Investment |
5,515,107,000 |
|
Employment |
52,000 |
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was used to distribute the savings/losses that would otherwise have been experienced by businesses and consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback was based on the historical relationship between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
The dynamic analysis assumes no enrichment and that the bill will recieve a 2/3 vote.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JOB, SD, SJS
|