| TO: | Honorable Steve Ogden, Chair, Senate Committee on Finance |
| FROM: | John S. O'Brien, Deputy Director, Legislative Budget Board |
| IN RE: | HB3 by Keffer, Jim (Relating to financing public schools in this state and reducing property taxes.), Committee Report 2nd House, Substituted |
Comptroller of Public Accounts
Dynamic Fiscal Note Analysis
For: CSSB 3 2nd House Committe Sub by Ogden
Date: July 9, 2005
I. Revenue Impact Analysis, 2006-2010
|
Fiscal Year |
Gain/(Loss) in Tax Revenue |
General Revenue Dynamic Feedback Revenue Effect |
Net Gain/(Loss) to Tax Collections |
|
2006 |
$2,002,291,000 |
$13,211,000 |
$2,015,502,000 |
|
2007 |
4,191,289,000 |
58,305,000 |
4,249,594,000 |
|
2008 |
4,629,946,000 |
98,284,000 |
4,728,230,000 |
|
2009 |
4,902,056,000 |
126,154,000 |
5,028,210,000 |
|
2010 |
5,024,453,000 |
168,262,000 |
5,192,715,000 |
II. Economic Impact Analysis, 2006-2010
|
Fiscal Year |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Personal Income |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Investment |
Increase/(Decrease) in Texas Employment |
|
2006 |
$449,000,000 |
$531,856,000 |
12,000 |
|
2007 |
1,677,000,000 |
2,243,546,000 |
42,000 |
|
2008 |
2,427,000,000 |
3,381,725,000 |
55,000 |
|
2009 |
2,912,000,000 |
4,089,100,000 |
60,000 |
|
2010 |
3,306,000,000 |
4,547,560,000 |
62,000 |
III. Economic Implications after Ten Years in 2015
|
Personal Income |
$4,026,000,000 |
|
Investment |
$5,463,795,000 |
|
Employment |
60,000 |
IV. Methodology
A Texas-specific general equilibrium model was used in calculating the dynamic effects. The model distributes the savings/losses that would otherwise have been experienced by businesses and consumers among the state's economic sectors. The revenue feedback calculation was based on the historical relationship between state tax revenues and associated economic factors.
This analysis was assembled at the request of the Legislative Budget Board and should not be considered as a proposal recommended by Comptroller Strayhorn.
| Source Agencies: | 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts
|
| LBB Staff: | JOB, SJS
|