The provision of the bill that is the subject of this analysis would amend the Government Code to allow certain inmates nearing their discharge date to be released to the supervised reentry program when the inmate is within one year of their discharge date or on the date the inmate has served 90 percent of their sentence whichever is the later of the two dates.

In fiscal year 2008, 8,905 offenders were discharged after completing their sentence.  Of the 8,905 discharged, 39 percent (3,489 offenders) were ineligible for release to parole supervision and 61 percent (5,416 offenders) were eligible for release to parole supervision.  Under the provisions of this bill, it is estimated the 5,416 offenders who were eligible for parole release would have served approximately 149 fewer days in prison per offender.  The reduction in the number of bed days translates into an annual reduction in the prison population of 2,200 offenders.  The reduction in the prison population as a result of the provisions of the bill is not likely to be realized until the end of fiscal year 2010 or the beginning of fiscal year 2011.  

Assuming sentencing patterns and release policies not addressed in this bill remain constant, the
probable impact of implementing the provisions of the bill during each of the first five years following passage, in terms of daily demand upon the adult corrections agencies, is estimated as follows: