The bill would amend the Family Code and Penal Code related to delinquent conduct for which a juvenile may be certified to stand trial as an adult and transferred from juvenile court to a district court. The bill would limit certifications to only those serious felony offenses for which a child may receive a determinate sentence to the Texas Youth Commission as listed in Family Code Section 53.045.

Limiting offenses eligible for certification is expected to result in increased demands upon the correctional resources of the State. For this analysis, it is assumed that juveniles no longer eligible for certification under this bill would be sent to the Texas Youth Commission (TYC). In fiscal year 2010, 39 juveniles were certified for non-determinate sentences. A similar number of juveniles is expected in the future. This analysis estimates that commitments to TYC would increase by 19 in fiscal year 2012, 24 in fiscal year 2013, 34 in fiscal year 2014, 34 in fiscal year 2015, and 29 in fiscal year 2016.

This analysis estimates that the reductions to the adult system (prison, state jail, and felony community supervision) would be as follows: 14 in fiscal year 2012, 18 in fiscal year 2013, 25 in fiscal year 2014, 25 in fiscal year 2015, and 21 in fiscal year 2016.

The expected average length of stay of these juveniles is one year and one month. This analysis assumes that all juveniles no longer eligible for certification under this bill would be sent to TYC except youth 18 years of age and older at the time of disposition. These juveniles will not be sent to TYC because (1) youth older than 18 years of age are ineligible for admission into TYC and (2) youth who are 18 years of age are rarely placed into TYC given that the youth will only be able to stay in TYC for less than 12 months.

This analysis does not include future, more difficult to quantify, population reductions beyond the first five years after implementation of the bill that would be realized as a result of limiting the offenses for which a child may be transferred from juvenile court to a district court to stand trial as an adult.