The bill would amend the Government Code as it relates to the eligibility of inmates convicted of injury to a child, elderly person, or disabled person for release to mandatory supervision. Under the provisions of the bill, inmates serving a sentence for injuring a child, elderly person, or disabled person, punishable as either a second or third degree felony, may not be released to mandatory supervision.
 
Among fiscal year 2012 prison releases, 686 offenders were incarcerated for injury to a child, elderly person, or disabled person. It is assumed that the bill would only affect the 443 prisoners who were released under mandatory supervision. The average length of incarceration in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice was 822 days for offenders released to mandatory supervision and it was 942 days for offenders released to parole or discharged. Please note that many of these offenders served a portion of their sentence in county jails; however, this incarceration period is not included in this analysis since state costs are the focus of this analysis. Therefore, it is assumed that each of the affected offenders would serve an additional 120 days under the provision of the bill.

The fiscal impact increases over time as more offenders complete the term of incarceration they would have served under current law and begin to serve the additional period of incarceration under the bill's provisions. Each year following the bill's implementation, new cohorts of admissions would become subject to the bill's provisions and thereby contribute to the increase in costs. In subsequent years, as additional offenders are admitted to prison, the incarcerated population is expected to increase, though at a slower rate.

 
In order to estimate the future impact of the bill, the proposed conditions of the bill have been analyzed using recent trends observed in populations released from prison for these offenses. Assuming sentencing patterns and release policies not addressed in this bill remain constant, the probable impact of implementing the provisions of the bill during each of the first five years following passage, in terms of daily demand upon the adult corrections agencies, is estimated as follows: