The bill would amend the Government Code and Code of Criminal Procedure as it relates to the eligibility of certain persons convicted of engaging in organized criminal activity for community supervision or release on parole or to mandatory supervision. Under the provisions of the bill, certain inmates serving a sentence for engaging in organized criminal activity would be ineligible for mandatory supervision and would be a 3g offense (i.e., ineligible for parole until their actual calendar time served, without consideration of good conduct time, equals one-half of the sentence or 30 calendar years, whichever is less, but no less than two calendar years). Additionally, if an offender committed certain in organized criminal activity offenses that is less than a first-degree felony and conspires or commits any 3g offense, then the organized criminal activity offense becomes a 3g offense.

 
Among fiscal year 2012 prison releases, 584 offenders were incarcerated for organized criminal activity. Under the provisions of the bill, these offenders would be ineligible for release on parole until they served, without consideration of good-conduct time, at least one-half of their sentences or 30 years, whichever is less, but no less than two years. It is assumed that the bill would only affect those offenders released prior to this new minimum requirement for time served. Among fiscal year 2012 releases, the bill would impact 202 parolees and 116 mandatory supervision releases. Since the Board of Pardons and Paroles authorized the release of these offenders prior to the new minimum release date, it is assumed that the Board would approve these offenders to be released on the new minimum release date if the bill were implemented. For the 202 parolees, the average length of incarceration is expected to increase from 829 days (or 2.3 years) to 1,410 days (or 3.9 years). For the 116 mandatory supervision releases, the average length of incarceration is expected to increase from 807 days (or 2.2 years) to 867 days (or 2.4 years).

The bill's provisions also make certain organized criminal activity offenses that are less than a first-degree felony a 3g offense if the offender was also convicted of committing or conspiring to commit a 3g offense. Although the number of offenders who conspired to commit a 3g offense is unknown, it is assumed that the number of offenders convicted under this statute would not result in a significant impact on the programs and workload of state corrections agencies or on the demand for resources and services of those agencies. This provision would only impact those offenders serving non-concurrent sentences for these offenses. Additionally, the impact of these provisions is not expected to occur during the first five fiscal years of implementation. In fiscal year 2012, less than 10 offenders were incarcerated under non-concurrent sentences for both types of offenses.

 
In each of the first five years of the bill's implementation, the incarcerated population associated with the bill would increase. This annual increase is due to an annual increase in the number of offenders completing the term of incarceration they would have served under current law and beginning to serve the additional period of incarceration required under the bill's provisions. Also contributing to the increase in the incarcerated population are the new cohorts of admissions who would become subject to the bill's provisions. The population associated with the bill is expected to grow, though at a slower rate, after the first five years of implementation as additional offenders are admitted to prison and become subject to the bill's provisions.
 
In order to estimate the future impact of the bill, the proposed conditions of the bill have been analyzed using recent trends observed in populations released from prison for these offenses. Assuming sentencing patterns and release policies not addressed in this bill remain constant, the probable impact of implementing the provisions of the bill during each of the first five years following passage, in terms of the number of additional people incarcerated in adult corrections agencies, is estimated as follows: