Honorable Ryan Guillen, Chair, House Committee on Community Safety, Select
FROM:
Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board
IN RE:
HB4843 by Holland (Relating to increasing the criminal penalty for the offense of unlawful possession of a firearm by a person convicted of a felony.), As Introduced
Estimated Two-year Net Impact to General Revenue Related Funds for HB4843, As Introduced : an impact of $0 through the biennium ending August 31, 2025; however, an estimated negative impact of ($186,622,371) is anticipated through August, 31, 2028.
Long-term costs related to an increase in the estimated demand for prison bed capacity would begin dependent upon disposition of related cases and admission to a state correctional institution.
The bill would make no appropriation but could provide the legal basis for an appropriation of funds to implement the provisions of the bill.
General Revenue-Related Funds, Five- Year Impact:
Fiscal Year
Probable Net Positive/(Negative) Impact to General Revenue Related Funds
2024
$0
2025
$0
2026
($7,081,383)
2027
($63,017,263)
2028
($116,523,724)
All Funds, Five-Year Impact:
Fiscal Year
Probable Savings/(Cost) from General Revenue Fund 1
2024
$0
2025
$0
2026
($7,081,383)
2027
($63,017,263)
2028
($116,523,724)
Fiscal Analysis
The bill would increase the punishment level from a third degree felony to a second degree felony for the offense of unlawful possession of a firearm by a person convicted of a felony and would increase the minimum term of imprisonment for the offense to 10 years.
Methodology
Based on the February 2023 Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report, the uniform cost per day was $2.24 for an adult on felony community supervision and $77.49 for an adult incarcerated in a systemwide facility. In fiscal year 2022, there were 1,080 individuals placed on community supervision and 1,745 individuals admitted into a state correctional institution for the offense of unlawful possession of a firearm by a person convicted of a felony. The average lengths of supervision or stay for an individual released from community supervision or prison in fiscal year 2022 for the offense of unlawful possession of a firearm by a person convicted of a felony were approximately 3.2 years and 1.9 years, respectively.
Population trends based on the February 2023 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections report were analyzed to estimate the impact on the adult community supervision and correctional institution populations. The estimated impact on these adult correctional populations would follow population trends observed in fiscal year 2022, including placements on supervision, admissions to prison, and average time between offense and admission or placement. The length of supervision and prison stay is based on the minimum term of ten years outlined in the bill's provisions.
The Office of Court Administration and the Comptroller of Public Accounts anticipate no significant fiscal impact to the state court system or state revenue.
Local Government Impact
While the fiscal impact to units of local government, it would be contingent on costs associated with enforcement, prosecution, supervision, or confinement related to the offense of unlawful possession of a firearm by a person convicted of a felony.
Source Agencies:
212 Office of Court Administration, Texas Judicial Council, 304 Comptroller of Public Accounts