TEA assumes there are 39,000 students in each pre-k and kindergarten cohort who attend private school under current law. This analysis assumes 50.0 percent of these students would participate in the program and receive $8,000 per year. Additionally, this analysis assumes 43.0 percent of these students would reside in a district with less than 20,000 enrolled students, resulting in an additional $10,000 for the school district in which the student resides. The benefit would last for five years and TEA assumes the payment would be received by districts in the following fiscal year.
This analysis assumes that the number of students who would be leaving public schools to participate in the program would be limited by the capacity within private schools. TEA assumes there are 250,000 students currently enrolled in private schools and that private schools could reasonably accept an additional 10 percent, or 25,000, students in fiscal year 2025. TEA also assumes the capacity would increase by 2 percent in fiscal years 2026-28. Thus, this analysis assumes that 25,000 students would be leaving public schools to participate in the program in fiscal year 2025, 30,500 in fiscal year 2026, 36,100 in fiscal year 2027, and 41,832 in fiscal year 2028. These students would each receive $8,000 per year. Additionally, this analysis assumes 43.0 percent of these students would reside in a district with less than 20,000 enrolled students, resulting in an additional $10,000 for the school district in which the student resides. The benefit lasts for five years and TEA assumes the payment would be received by districts in the following fiscal year. Additionally, these students would generate a savings under the FSP of $9,272 per student.
This analysis assumes that the number of students currently enrolled in private school that would qualify for the program would be limited by the 10 percent cap. The total estimated cost for providing grants under the program is estimated to be $568.9 million in fiscal year 2025, $791.1 million in fiscal year 2026, increasing to $1,238.5 million in fiscal year 2028. The savings to the FSP is estimated to be $231.8 million in fiscal year 2026, $282.8 million in fiscal year 2027, and $334.8 million in fiscal year 2028. This analysis assumes there would be sufficient funds available for the purpose of funding the students participating in the program. To the extent that appropriations, grants, and transfers to the fund under the education savings account program were less, the cost of the program and the number of students it would have the capacity to serve would be less.
Although the bill would create a new civil cause of action, the Office of Court Administration anticipates that case volume driven by the bill could be absorbed by existing resources. No significant fiscal impact is expected.
The bill would require the comptroller to require that each CEAO
produce an annual report regarding program participation and performance. This analysis assumes that the cost would be covered by the contract with the Comptroller and would thus be covered by resources provided to the Comptroller to administer the program.