Honorable Terry M. Wilson, Chair, House Committee on Higher Education
FROM:
Jerry McGinty, Director, Legislative Budget Board
IN RE:
HB1868 by Leo Wilson (Relating to performance tier funding under the public junior college state finance program.), As Introduced
Estimated Two-year Net Impact to General Revenue Related Funds for HB1868, As Introduced: a negative impact of ($1,105,465,895) through the biennium ending August 31, 2027.
The bill would make no appropriation but could provide the legal basis for an appropriation of funds to implement the provisions of the bill.
General Revenue-Related Funds, Five- Year Impact:
Fiscal Year
Probable Net Positive/(Negative) Impact to General Revenue Related Funds
2026
($539,585,025)
2027
($565,880,870)
2028
($595,534,110)
2029
($626,496,118)
2030
($658,822,103)
All Funds, Five-Year Impact:
Fiscal Year
Probable Savings/(Cost) from General Revenue Fund 1
2026
($539,585,025)
2027
($565,880,870)
2028
($595,534,110)
2029
($626,496,118)
2030
($658,822,103)
Fiscal Analysis
The bill would reduce the required number of semester credit hours or the equivalent of dual credit or dual enrollment courses completed by a student in order for community colleges to receive formula funding from fifteen to nine.
Methodology
The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board estimated the number of students who will complete between nine and fourteen semester credit hours or the equivalent of dual credit or dual enrollment courses by using a forecast model based on historical actual certified data from 2018 to 2024 and assuming the fiscal year 2025 funding weights and rates remain constant through fiscal year 2030. The forecasted weighted dual credit or enrollment outcomes are estimated to be 154,167 in fiscal year 2026 and 161,680 in fiscal year 2027 followed by an expected upward trend through fiscal year 2030. The total number of such weighted outcomes multiplied by the fiscal year 2025 dual credit or enrollment outcome rate of $3,500 would result in an estimated cost of $539,585,025 in fiscal year 2026 and $565,880,870 in fiscal year 2027.
Local Government Impact
No fiscal implication to units of local government is anticipated.
Source Agencies:
781 Higher Education Coordinating Board, 966 Howard College, 978 San Jacinto College